Numbers: How the Lebanese economy has benefited from the Syrian crisis
This article stated in No. (145) of the Economic Journal
Article Date: 05/23/2013
Economic - special:
Wrote: Hazem Awad
Monitors magazine "economic" in this report, the effects of the Syrian crisis on the Lebanese economy in both its negative and positive, after a state of discontent, which announced its inception Lebanese minister, arrived later to the street, who chose him some Lebanese media, disgruntled only, and who they based the assessment and reality Economic, just the feelings caused by dissatisfaction with the existence of a shared bounties of their own country, without reference to the figures.
Numbers expose Complaints
Unlike the case of discontent that prevails in some quarters Lebanese economic, the numbers were in some sectors prove reverse complaints, according to a report issued by the "Bank Audi" February last year, was found in some ثناياه that these sectors have flourished due to the Syrian crisis and not vice versa, where flourished Lebanon's industrial exports in the Gulf due to demand and demand from Syria, which increased 13.1% compared to 2011.
Also, the agricultural sector succeeded in achieving improvement in the level of external consisting, while the Internal consisting of semi-stable in the context of a relatively steady domestic demand in the year 2012.
And recorded agricultural exports in 2012 increased due partly greater demand by Syria because of the shortage that hit this type of product as a result of the crisis, as the value of agricultural exports $ 222 million, an increase of 10.4% compared with the year 2011, where it was these exports have increased (3.6%).
According to the report, "Audi", agricultural export growth is still expected and more, and it is linked to the increasing demand coming from Syria, which alone received about 20% of total agricultural exports of Lebanon.
And Kantash the agricultural sector, the industrial sector was the same luck, where he witnessed the activity outside growing demand from Syria, while domestic activity affected by weak economic growth, In 2012, the value of industrial exports increased by 4.8% after it hit near-depression in 2012.
Transit imports
In turn, succeeded the port of Beirut in recording a relative improvement in 2012, partly as a result of conversion transport of goods from the mainland because of the poor conditions in Syria, but that poor land transportation within Syria itself, and the difficulty of movement between provinces as a result tensions security, prompting many to resort to Lebanon as a bridge to cross to their home provinces a convoluted way.
And adopt some المضطرين to move frequently between some provinces Kdamishq - Tartous, for example, out of Damascus to Lebanon and then to Tartous, except for the adoption of some Syrian families in Lebanon, as a safe haven to meet their children living in other provinces such as Damascus, Castqlal parents to the plane of Airport Latakia Airport Lebanon to meet with those who want the people of Damascus there.
Apart from that, the movement of airport Lebanon increased activity significantly from the previous, where he became relied upon by the Syrians dramatically, especially in light of tense security situation on the road to Damascus International Airport, and the growing incidence of travel outside the country, and all of the above constitutes a revenue daily Lebanese treasury.
Benefits of smuggling
Not over the positive effects of the Syrian crisis at this point, in the follow-up "economic" current economic conditions in Lebanon and the region with some of the reports and statements and the statements made by economists out there, showing the presence of other benefits reflected in the Syrian crisis on the Lebanese market.
It will be the beginning to flourish smuggling money to Lebanon, in the month of November (November) in 2011, ie the end of the year before last, the first year of the Syrian crisis, the newspaper "Financial Times" for one economist Syrians living in Dubai Samir Safan, saying that " upper and middle classes in Syria transferred between three and five billion dollars out of the country since the outbreak of the events, due to Syrian pressure on the currency and the scarcity of investment opportunities. "
Saifan added that "the best way to smuggle money out of Syria is through Lebanon, because of a list of channels there."
The newspaper did not stop at this specialist, and other samples were taken from traders and businessmen who assured her that "money evade Syrian daily to Lebanon since the crisis began normalcy."
Was quoted by the newspaper specialists away from reality, in the process of monitoring for examples of cases of smuggling of money and valuables, carried out by the "economic" for the Syrian crisis, enumerate the following: the "Secretariat of the Customs new Yabous" on the border with Lebanon, adjusts several cases to smuggle large sums of money to Lebanon, which was incident to smuggle huge sums into two buses last year, including two million Saudi riyals and QR 50 thousand and 56 thousand dirhams and JD 5500, in addition to the amounts of the euro.
In another incident, seized "the secretariat of Customs new Yabous" last year also, the amount of 660 thousand U.S. dollars placed in the cache secret touring car while trying to smuggle them to Lebanon, except for Therb collectibles and valuables, as frustrated elements of the "Secretariat of the Customs petition" province of Tartous last year's Antique smuggling operation to Lebanon, and that during the search of a small passenger car, except for finding 18 of archaeological mosaic in Lebanon fled from Syria.
Except for smuggling, there was another phenomenon, the migration of capital of Syria to Lebanon, and the start of a given volume of investments, even if it was simple there, has been spotted newspaper "Middle East" through her speech with one analyst Alaguetsadeyen, which is named Sami Nader, where he said It is: "Having entered the crisis in Syria six months, the movement of displacement to Beirut and demand for buying real estate after smuggling or migration of wealth and capital Syria is the inevitable result, and this migration is not limited only to the capital flight Syria to Lebanon, but extended to the investments that were Astqtabtha Damascus in the last ten years, and is expected to continue for a long time in the light of the flow of funds, and on a daily basis, from Syria through Lebanese banks deployed there. "
These investors, headed towards an effective market by replacing the huge investment real estate projects to invest in small commercial projects current demand, according to Nader.
Realistic indicators
Perhaps modern newspapers preceding the smuggling of funds and the migration of capital from Syria to Lebanon, Aatrb some Lebanese officials who took the paint pictures melancholy about their experience economic after the Syrian crisis, but the figures the volume of deposits, which was recorded in Lebanese banks, which increased Finally, an indication realistic For such operations, and proves that quoted saying "the Middle East" that "the flow of funds is on a daily basis, from Syria through Lebanese banks deployed there."
According to statements governor "BDL" Riad Salameh, during a meeting with the Board of Directors Association of Banks in Lebanon, "the increase of deposits in banks Lebanon 2012 exceeded 8%," and noted that it "amounted to $ 9 billion, of which 52.6% (equivalent to 4.74 billion dollars) are deposited in dollars, and the rest in Lebanese pounds. "
According to the consolidated balance sheet of banks, the deposits Pfiadtha three, ie, private sector deposits resident and non-resident deposits, banks, non-resident of 183 203 billion pounds (121.5 billion dollars) at the end of December (December 2011), to reach 197 332 billion (130.9 billion dollars) pounds in December The first 2012, according to safety.
Abizaid and safety that "loans increased by more than 10%, and was influential in the growth rate of the economy which is estimated by the Bank of Lebanon is estimated at 2% of the total in 2012."
The balance of payments recorded according to safety, at the end of the 2012 deficit of $ 1.5 billion, further evidence reflects نهوضا positively to this aspect, compared with the deficit in 2011 to 1.99 billion dollars, which reflects the balance of payments on the net the entry of funds in and out of Lebanon in all types, whether it is the movement of cash, trade or investment.
The banks' profits rose in 2012 to 1620 million dollars, according to the safety, compared with 1580 million in 2011, unlike all estimates and projections, not vibrate banks earnings growth in 2012, but increased by 2.6% to $ 1620 million.
Syria is not the direct cause
With all these positives, can not deny the economic losses suffered by Lebanon now, but it's not a whole resulting from the Syrian crisis, for example, the form of damage to the tourism sector there is a major crisis hit imports of the state in general, but the main reason was the reluctance of the Gulf all tourism there for certain reasons, except for the country affected by the global economic crisis in general.
Confirming this, the head of the Lebanese government resigned Najib Mikati recently that "there are difficulties facing the tourism sector, in addition to the deadlock in the real estate sector and contraction movement capital inflows and the resulting from a large deficit in the balance of payments and decrease the estimated growth rate" but he stressed that the what happened to Lebanon may have infected others in the Arab region and beyond, although it was possible to avoid a lot of repercussions in Lebanon cohesion and internal stability.
And to return to Syrian affairs and its consequences negative impact on Lebanon, the economist said the Lebanese Walid Abu Suleiman, told Anatolia that "displaced Syrians class affordable in Lebanon prefer renting homes instead of buying them for several reasons, the most important of the absence of tranquility, where Lebanon has become known as the country of transit for Men Business Syrians over to neighboring countries after their conversion projects and a large number of them to Cairo, Cyprus and the United Arab Emirates after an absence of elements of investment in Lebanon. "
The Head of the Board of Directors and Managing Director of Investment Development Authority of Lebanon (IDAL) Nabil Itani, in 2011, the decline in the volume of investment in Lebanon 20% compared to 2010, indicating that the volume of investments in Lebanon amounted to $ 3.8 billion in 2011, compared with 4.9 billion Dolaraam 2010, due to the significant downturn in the real estate market caused by internal political differences and the Syrian crisis and its negative repercussions on the Lebanese economic sectors leads to direct investors towards more stable countries.
However, it was announced Itani that the institution (IDAL), completed in 2011 Five investment projects worth $ 170 million U.S., revealing at the same time for eight investment projects worth $ 350 million will be implemented during 2012 in the sectors of tourism, industrial, technological and information and communications technology industries Agricultural and media.
Here should be noted the news agency quoted Turkish "Anatolia" for a member of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry in Aleppo, a resident of Lebanon that he "signed the paper pledged to prevent him from establishing any projects inside Lebanese territory, and that this case applies to any Syrian businessman intends to get to stay in Lebanon, "What could prevent the Syrians blockbuster huge investments there, and guide them toward investments as simple as the newspaper" Middle East "above.
Losses in numbers
In the language of numbers, Lebanon has recorded a growth of between 7 and 8 percent annually in the period from 2007 until 2010, but the rate dropped sharply in 2011 due to internal political tension Akpth Syrian events.
According to forecasts, "International Monetary Fund" in 2013, it has a GDP growth of real gross Lebanese 2.5% in 2013, which is a relatively low rate, but it is similar to the rate experienced by the year 2012 (2.0%).
The report said, "Bank Audi's" document the beginning of the report, that a combination of events on the domestic scene Lebanese, coupled with the troubled regional, especially in Syria, limited somewhat by consumer spending and investment, which closed in 2012 on the decline in the number of tourists and the value of cleared checks on the one hand, and on the growth in airport traffic activity, albeit at a slower pace.
The trade balance deficit recorded an increase of about 5% amid stability of customs revenue at about $ 3015 million, with the decline in VAT revenues of about 3.9%.
For its part, saw (BSE) some pressure downward in 2012 because of fears of the repercussions of the Syrian crisis on the Square Lebanon's internal, added that some market participants refrained from new investments in spite of the basics positive that reflect the attractiveness of stocks Lebanese compared with the shares of the region .
The average price ratio to net asset value on the stock of Lebanon (Beirut Stock Exchange) 1.10 times compared to 1.52 times in the Middle East and North Africa, noting that some of the stocks recorded an average minimum of 1.00 once, except for the average ratio of price to yield on stocks Lebanon, which amounted to 7.0 times in December (December 2012) compared to 12.2 times in the area.
The index of prices of stocks listed on the Beirut Stock Exchange, ended the year 2012, down by 1.6% on an annual basis, despite the rise in prices in December, while the balance of payments registered a deficit of $ 1.5 billion.
Real estate
The influx of more than 250 thousand Syrian refugees partial support for growth, a figure close to what extent the number of tourists who Odallm to Lebanon in 2012 (290 thousand).
The period of the establishment of Syrians in Lebanon is much longer than the period of stay of tourists, which could provide important support to sectors such as consumption of commodities and rents residential and educational sector, where raising the Syrians with the Iraqis occupancy rate of serviced apartments since the beginning of this year to between 40 and 50%.
The number of real estate owned by the Syrians since the outbreak of events, about 1297 drug area of about 117 thousand and 555 square meters in the various regions of Lebanon, making a simple demand grows with price stability.
The company explained according to the site (for يبانون Files) mail, that the numbers and prices reflect local market to the staff of international companies, which differs from the rental market to citizens about the price and the evolution of these prices, according to the weekly newsletter for the group (Byblos Bank), Lebanon This "Week".
The company noted that the rise in rents in Beirut, reflecting the continuing rise in costs and high prices, despite the uncertainty of local political and economic situation in the country.
She added that Beirut is the only city in the Middle East, which is ranked among the most expensive 20 cities in the world, in terms of rental housing for employees of multinational corporations, as it fell Abu Dhabi to the center 29 of the center 20 in 2011, reflecting a decline in prices إيجاراتها compared to other cities.
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